Walker ahead in last poll before election

Republican Gov. Scott Walker is leading Democrat Mary Burke in the last Marquette University Law School poll released before Tuesday’s election.

The poll released Wednesday showed Walker with 50 percent support, compared with 43 percent for Burke among likely voters who shared they are “absolutely certain” to vote or had voted early. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

When you look at the full sample of registered voters, Walker only holds a one-point lead with 46 percent to Burke’s 45 percent and a 2.7 percent margin of error.

“In the registered voter sample it is absolutely too close to call,” said pollster Charles Franklin. “If everybody in our sample went out to vote, it would be a very close race. But when you take into account a voter’s self-reported certainty they will vote, that’s where Governor Walker has opened up a 7 point advantage.”

Walker and Burke were tied with 47 percent support in the previous poll released two weeks ago. The one before that, on Oct. 1, showed Walker with a narrow 5-point lead.

The latest poll of 1,164 likely voters was done between Oct. 23 and Sunday.

“There’s always the potential for turnout to shift between the time we did the polling last weekend and election day,” Franklin said. “Ultimately it is those individual voters that have to make up their mind whether to get to the polls.”

Walker was campaigning Wednesday around the state with U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, while Burke was in Green Bay.