UW-Madison survey finds Biden support growing in swing states, including Wisconsin

Trump Biden Split

MADISON, Wis. — A new poll from UW-Madison’s Elections Research Center and YouGov shows former Vice President Joe Biden with growing leads over President Trump in several battleground states just days before Election Day.

The most recent ERC surveys conducted between October 13th and October 21st found Biden leads President Trump among likely voters in Michigan (52% to 42%), Pennsylvania (52% to 44%) and Wisconsin (53% to 44%). The margin of error for the survey among likely voters was +/- 4.20% in Michigan, +/- 4.45% in Pennsylvania and +/- 4.07% in Wisconsin. Biden’s lead in all three states are outside that margin of error.

The president’s numbers have remained largely unchanged during the Election Research Center’s surveys, staying close to his overall job approval ratings. The difference this time, the ERC says, is more undecided or minority party voters have started to support Biden.

That’s led to an increase in support for Biden in those states since the ERC’s previous survey in September. In that time, Biden has seen support grow by 4 percentage points in Michigan and Pennsylvania and 5 percentage points in Wisconsin.

The ERC surveys also found Biden has a very large lead among those who have already voted. President Trump is favored by those who say they have yet to vote, but the ERC says that margin is not large enough to make up for the support Biden is building in early voting.

Among people who said they already voted, 75% in Michigan, 87% in Pennsylvania and 73% in Wisconsin said they voted for Biden. Of those who have yet to vote, 57% in Michigan, 59% in Pennsylvania and 57% in Wisconsin say they intend to vote for President Trump.

Of those who already voted, 92% said they submitted their ballots by mail. Among those who have not already voted, 74% said they plan to vote in-person on Election Day.

A total of 800 people were surveyed in each of the three states.