Poll: Baldwin, Obama leading opponents

Marquette poll director says independents shifted to Democrats
Poll: Baldwin, Obama leading opponents

Democrats are making a strong showing in the latest poll results released from the Marquette University Law School.

Poll results released Wednesday show that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Tammy Baldwin has 50 percent to Republican Tommy Thompson’s 41 percent among likely voters.

The poll of 601 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The poll finds that the lead in the race has flipped. In last month’s Marquette University Law School poll, Thompson held a 50 percent to 41 percent lead over Baldwin.

Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed the U.S. Senate race in a 47-47 tie.

“I don’t put much stock in it. A month ago, I was up 12 points and today it’s down nine points. Polls are going to jump all over between now and the election. It’s the poll that counts on Election Day,” Thompson said.

Thompson visited a manufacturer in Onalaska on Wednesday. He said he is feeling good about the race despite saying Tuesday that his campaign was “broke.”


Baldwin was in Washington, D.C., Wednesday. In a statement, campaign spokesman John Kraus said that “four polls released this week show that we are moving in the right direction as the choice for Wisconsin voters has been made clear.”

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said the polls also showed a trend.

“The thing that’s so striking is how big the shift was among independents. That accounts for most of the change that we see — independents shifting their view on this. The flip side is that what can change dramatically in one month could change dramatically later,” Franklin said.

Franklin noted that the random sample in the poll this month did have a larger percentage of Democrats and smaller percentage of Republicans than usual, but when statistically adjusted for that, Baldwin remains in the lead.

Republicans on Wednesday called the Marquette Law School Poll an “outlier.” But Democrats said they believe it shows enthusiasm and a post-convention bounce.

The Marquette University Law School shows President Barack Obama’s lead in Wisconsin is growing.

The Marquette University Law School poll also shows Obama leading Romney 54 percent to 40 percent. That Obama lead is up from six points in the August Marquette poll.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Obama with a 51 percent to 45 percent lead over Republican Mitt Romney. The poll of 1,485 likely voters conducted Sept. 11 through Monday has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Obama has widened his lead in the state from the previous Quinnipiac poll done in August which showed him about even with Romney at 49 percent to 47 percent.

“So I think we’ve seen a significant shift in the election, but we’ll see how long it lasts as both campaigns, for president and the Senate, really ramp up after a period of relative quiet,” Franklin said.

Obama plans to host a rally on the Summerfest grounds in Milwaukee on Saturday, which will be his first stop in Wisconsin since February.