Periodic changes for heavy rain and possible flooding over the next week
MADISON, Wis. — Today was a nice fall day with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s, while dry air has dropped dew points into the lower 40s.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop later tonight night, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely on Friday before ending later on Friday evening. A few of the thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall of one to one and a half inches, mainly in areas south of Madison. This is an area that has received heavy rain of 150 to 400% of normal since the beginning of September. Even rainfall amounts of as little as one inch may lead to additional flooding concerns.
There may also be a chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm Friday afternoon or early Friday evening, mainly south of Madison. High winds and hail are the main threats in Wisconsin, although the severe weather threat will be higher just to the south in much of Illinois where isolated tornadoes may be possible as well.
After a dry and cool day on Saturday, showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night as a warm front lifts toward Wisconsin, and passes through southern Wisconsin Sunday night or Monday morning.
While the chances for rain may drop a little as thunderstorms become more widely scattered as the warm front moves to the north of Madison, any thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday are capable of producing heavy rainfall. Monday will be quite warm and humid, with high temperatures approaching 80 degrees in some areas. That could also lead to a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms as well as the heavy rainfall threat.
As the center of the storm system moves through Wisconsin on Tuesday and Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest long-range computer models continue to show the potential for general 2-4″ rainfalls over much of southern Wisconsin over the next seven days, with locally higher amounts possible in areas that have heavier thunderstorms. This could lead to additional flooding in flood prone areas and near rivers and streams.
Alert Days remain in the forecast for Friday of this week, and for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week when the heavy rain and flooding threats will be the highest. There could also be a threat of isolated severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and on Monday.
Dry and cooler weather should return later Thursday into Friday of next week. After a cold front bring some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday of next weekend, a more prolonged period of dry weather with seasonable fall temperatures could settle over Wisconsin for much of the first full week of October.
Stay tuned to News 3 Now newscasts, Channel3000.com on the internet, and the Channel 3000 First Alert Weather and Traffic App for further weather updates.
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