Experts think Trump ties may come back to haunt in swing state Wisconsin

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Donald Trump reasserted his grip on Republicans in Wisconsin’s primary, but both Democrats and Republicans said Wednesday that the former president’s involvement in key races for governor and U.S. Senate could come back to hurt them in the swing state.

Trump’s pick for governor, construction company co-owner Tim Michels, beat out the choice of establishment Republicans. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said that means Michels now “owns” Trump and he won’t be able to moderate in the general election.

“His relationship with Trump is going to drive this campaign,” Evers told reporters after eating breakfast with his newly minted running mate, state Rep. Sarah Rodriguez. “Trump owns him, he owns Trump. That’s his problem, that’s not mine.”

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Michels’ campaign adviser Chris Walker reacted to Evers’ comments in a statement, saying Evers and President Joe Biden “are going to desperately attempt to do everything they can to distract the people of Wisconsin from their massive failures.”

Michels, in his victory speech, touted himself as the voice for a working class that he said has been left behind by Democrats. Evers mocked that message, noting that Michels owns a $17 million estate in Connecticut.

“He can wear a blue shirt so that he can have a blue collar, but at the end of the day I’m not quite sure that someone of his status with houses all over the country can say ‘I’m just one of you,’” Evers said.

Like Trump, Michels has cast himself as an outsider. Evers dismissed that too, calling it “one of the biggest jokes of this campaign.” He cited Michels’ work serving on the boards of powerful lobbying groups, including the state chamber of commerce.

Trump narrowly won the state in 2016 and lost by a similar margin in 2020. A Marquette University Law School poll released in May showed Trump’s favorability rating in the state at 35%, with 61% having an unfavorable opinion.

In addition to backing Michels, Trump is a strong supporter of Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, who faces Mandela Barnes, the current lieutenant governor.

“Trump cuts both ways,” Republican strategist Brandon Scholz said. “While he drives his base and supporters in the primary, will that help in the general because he turns off as many people as he turns on? … I don’t think we know yet.”

Michels would be smart to focus on Biden, Evers and the issues, not Trump, said Republican strategist Mark Graul.

“I would advise Michels to focus on what people currently care about the most, and that’s their concern about the economy, their concern about inflation, their concern about crime,” Graul said.

Evers pointed to recent polls to argue that Michels is out of step with a majority of Wisconsin residents on key issues like abortion rights and the outcome of the 2020 election won by Biden. Trump has continued to push for decertification, which attorneys from both sides and legal experts have discounted as an unconstitutional impossibility.

Michels has been inconsistent on decertification, but he does want to dismantle the bipartisan elections commission and sign bills Evers vetoed that would make it harder to vote absentee.

Trump is popular with many because he is perceived to be a fighter, but Michels needs to broaden that message, said Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. He endorsed former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch in the primary and was targeted for defeat by Trump.

“If he is a perceived to be a fighter who gets things done, I think that will be a much more appealing general election message,” Vos said of Michels.

Whether he would tell Michels to distance himself from Trump, Vos said he would only give his advice “in private.”

Michels’ win over Kleefisch, who was endorsed by Mike Pence, was the clearest victory for a Trump-backed candidate in Wisconsin. A little-known challenger Trump endorsed almost knocked off Vos, and an attorney general candidate who ran on the platform of decertifying Biden’s win in the state got a surprising 26% of the vote.

In the days before the election, Vos challenger Adam Steen was joined on the campaign trail by the investigator Vos hired under pressure from Trump to look into the 2020 election. That investigator, former Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman, also appeared at the Trump rally.

A triumphant Vos declared his 260-vote win shows “you don’t have to be a lapdog to whatever Donald Trump says.” Vos called a meeting of Assembly Republicans for Tuesday to discuss the future of Gableman’s contract, which has cost taxpayers more than $1.1 million and remains subject to five pending lawsuits.

Evers said Vos must fire Gableman or “I’m fearful we’re going to be talking about this election for the next 20 years.”

Other Republican incumbents who faced conservative challengers easily defeated them. But none of those candidates were endorsed by Trump.