Big Ten - Is This Buckeyes' Year?
Posted: 1:38 pm CDT August 18, 2008
Philadelphia, PA -- (Sports Network) - Will Ohio State finally win a BSC Title game?Despite winning 30 of their last 33 games, the Buckeyes have to be successful in the "big one" in order to be classified as champions. They came close in '07, losing by just 14 to LSU (after getting completely destroyed by Florida two seasons ago), and with 19 starters returning to Columbus, this is the year that could put them over the top. The schedule is a little tougher with trips to USC, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois, but as we have noticed in recent years, one loss will not make or break a season. The league, as a whole, has been sliding a down a treacherous path the last five years producing a combined postseason record of 14-22. The last time the Big Ten had a winning bowl season was all the way back in 2002. Overall, the 11 clubs finished 32-12 SU, but just 22-22 ATS in their 44 FBS non-conference outings, and were below .500 against the other five BCS leagues at 7-9 both SU and ATS. Only the ACC generated inferior marks in both categories. Let's take a look at the Big Ten with odds to win 1) the conference and 2) the BCS National Championship: BIG TEN CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS 1) OHIO STATE (2-5, 4-1 second choice) - For all the glory of the last couple of years, the Buckeyes have actually lost two of their last three matchups. Offense - Chris Wells is the straw that stirs the drink, rushing for 1,609 yards in his first year as a starter a year ago. Todd Boeckman led the league in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 149, but he must improve off his 104 figure over the last three games. The Buckeyes, who lose only one starter, ranked just sixth in Big Ten play last year in total offense. Defense - Ohio State finished the season number one in the country in scoring and total defense, and with nine starters coming back, those numbers should remain strong. Outlook - A win over USC will set Ohio State up nicely for a possible third straight trip to the BCS Championship game. However, it's hard to back the Buckeyes, especially at 4-1, after their two previous showings. Eleven regular season wins (seven in the Big Ten) are a virtual lock. OSU is 10-3 as a road favorite the last three years. 2) WISCONSIN (7-2, 30-1) - The Badgers are 25-1 at home over the last four years, and Ohio State and Penn State both come to Madison this year. Offense - Injuries stifled the offense last season, as Wisconsin's two starting wide receivers missed a total of 12 games. In addition, star running back P.J. Hill carried the ball just 33 times the final five matchups. Allan Evridge takes over for Tyler Donovan and since he's left-handed, Wisconsin will have a much more experienced protector in senior right tackle, Eric Vanden Heuvel, as opposed to Gabe Carimi, who started all 13 games at left tackle as a freshman last year. Defense - There are major concerns at cornerback heading into the season, as Aaron Henry will miss at least two games and possibly more after re-injuring his ACL a few days ago. The other corner, Allen Langford, is still recovering from his ACL tear last season. Nonetheless, the veteran front seven will show massive improvement from its pathetic performance a year ago. Outlook - The Badgers are the only team in the Big Ten with a chance to unseat the Buckeyes. Health will be the only issue for a team loaded with talent. Expect a 6-2 league mark (10 wins overall) with the two losses coming at Iowa and Michigan State. They are 14-7-1 as a home favorite the last four years, but 0-4 as a road dog the last two. 3) MICHIGAN STATE (11-1, 100-1) - The Spartans, who went bowling in Mark Dantonio's first year at the helm, will strive for loftier accomplishments in '08. Offense - Quarterback Brian Hoyer won't have Devin Thomas to throw to this season, but he won't need him if Keshawn Martin and Fred Smith continue to light it up as they have in practice. Javon Ringer shouldn't have any problems recapturing his '07 form with an o-line that improved as the year went by. Defense - Even though MSU loses its top two sack leaders, help is on the way in the form of former Cincinnati DE Trevor Anderson. The LB crew is young, but talented. As is the case with Wisconsin, the secondary is now a question mark as safety Roderick Jenrette is currently off the team while dealing with personal issues. Dantonio and his staff did wonders with a defense that ranked 57th in scoring after finishing 100th the year before. Expect another climb in '08. Outlook - The Spartans will not have to play any back-to-back road games this year after nine "death" trips the past five seasons where their record in the second game was 2-7. Look for eight wins, five in the Big Ten after losing all six games last year by a TD or less. MSU is 5-1 as an away dog the last two years. 4) IOWA (10-1, 100-1) - The Hawkeyes have won just 19 of their last 37 games and head coach Kirk Ferentz is feeling the pressure to produce a winner. Offense - The offense stalled in Jake Christensen's first year as starter, mainly due to season-ending injuries to the team's two leading receivers in the first quarter of the fourth game. Both return this year, along with an offensive line that could be the most improved in the country. Defense - The Hawkeyes lose six starters to a defense that finished 13th in the nation in scoring. However, Ferentz has recruited well on this side of the ball and most of the replacements are prized prospects. Outlook - There's no question the offense will be better. If the young "D" can maintain last year's numbers, Iowa will return to a bowl game with an 8-4 mark, 5-3 in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are 0-7 as road favorites the last four years. 5) PENN STATE (11-2, 50-1) - The Nittany Lions demolished their opposition, outscoring them by 12.8 ppg last season. However, take away their joke of a non-conference schedule and the number decreases to 3.4 ppg. Offense - Despite the fact that he directed the Lions to a pair of nine-win seasons, most PSU fans are ecstatic that Anthony Morelli is no longer with the team. There's talk of the Lions running a spread offense with Daryll Clark at QB, similar to 2005 when Michael Robinson led the team to an 11-1 record. There's one difference, however, as Robinson had 18 career starts on offense while Clark has zero. Defense - Injuries and suspensions have altered what could have been a superb front seven. It will be difficult for them to hold their opponents below 100 rushing yards as they did a year ago, which in turn will put more pressure on a secondary that allowed opposing QBs to hit on 59% of their throws in '07. Outlook - Penn State will be solid in the trenches, but the talent thins out from there. Expect a 4-4 league mark (eight wins total) and a second straight fifth-place tie. The Lions are 2-8 ATS on the road and 4-12 ATS in conference play the last two years. 6) PURDUE (12-1, 25-1 Field) - This is Joe Tiller's last season as head coach, so look for the Boilermakers to give it their all after a pair of eight-win campaigns. Offense - It's all about Curtis Painter. The senior will become the league's all-time passing leader should he amass more than 3,030 yards, which shouldn't be a problem after throwing for over 3,800 last year. His top two options have moved on, but a pair of JUCOs (Aaron Valentin and Arsenio Curry) will step right in. Defense - Purdue's "D" knocked off a full rushing yard (4.4 ypc down from 5.5) in league play last season and more improvement is expected in '08. The secondary will get a huge lift if Torri Williams can stay healthy for an entire year. Outlook - Purdue has not defeated a top 25 opponent since the 2003 season. Still, the Boilermakers have averaged seven wins over the last four years and that's where they'll stand in '08, with four coming in Big Ten play. They are 5-15 ATS off a SU loss the last four years. 7) ILLINOIS (4-1, 50-1) - It's not often a team can improve from a two-win campaign one year and then reach the Rose Bowl the next, but the Fighting Illini did just that. Look for them to take a step back in '08. Offense - Don't underestimate the departure of Rashard Mendenhall, who simply rushed for 150 yards or more six times last season. Daniel Dufrene hasn't wowed the Illini brass in camp and in 10 of his 13 games last year, he gained 79 yards on 3.3 ypc. The o-line, which remained healthy all year long, loses two key components. Look for Juice Williams to throw more in his junior season, which is not his strength. Defense - Last year, Illinois returned seven of its top eight tacklers and the run defense still allowed one-half yard more per run in its eight league games. Now the team loses its top three tacklers, as well as DT Sirod Williams, who will miss the season with a torn ACL. Outlook - Don't expect another miracle campaign in Champaign. The last time the Illini had a banner season (10-2 in 2002) they finished below .500 (5-7) the following year. Look for another 5-7 mark and a three-way tie with Michigan and Northwestern for seventh in the Big Ten. They are 1-6 ATS in non- conference play the last two years. 8) MICHIGAN (13-2, 50-1) - The transition from Lloyd Carr to Rich Rodriguez will pay off in the long run, but not in 2008. Offense - Even though Chad Henne's numbers declined since his freshman season, he still ended up as the school's all-time career passing leader. Mike Hart also leaves as the number one rusher with over 5,000 yards. The team's top two receiving leaders also waive bye-bye along with four-fifths of the starting offensive line. All I can say is good luck, coach. Defense - Michigan also loses its top four tacklers after allowing 882 rushing yards over the final four games. The Wolverines' top two interception leaders also depart, and the entire "D" must learn new schemes. Outlook - Michigan should improve as the year moves along, but don't expect more than five wins (three in the Big Ten). The Wolverines get a huge break as five of their first six games are at home, but then again, that didn't help last year as they lost the first two in Ann Arbor. It's been a long time since Michigan finished below .500 (1967), but that streak will end in '08. The Maize and Blue are 5-0 as an away dog the last four years. 9) NORTHWESTERN (20-1, 25-1 Field) - The Wildcats have not won a bowl game since 1948. Offense - The spread formation has been a staple in Evanston, but say hello to the no-huddle offense with the hire of new OC Mick McCall. Inconsistency has plagued this unit the last couple of years, especially at QB as C.J. Bacher has thrown more career picks than touchdowns. In addition, the line must deal with two freshmen taking the place of a pair of longtime veteran starters. Defense - Northwestern returned a veteran DL last season, but the unit recorded just five sacks in the first seven games. The "D" was in over its heads against the Big Ten, allowing a whopping 38 ppg (31 overall). Improvement is expected, but the Wildcats have not held their opposition under 25 ppg this decade. Outlook - The schedule is manageable with four relatively easy games to start the year. On the other hand, the winning streak will end once the Big Ten season begins. Look for a 7-5 mark, 3-5 in the conference. The 'Cats are 2-14 as a home favorite since '01. 10) MINNESOTA (55-1, 25-1 Field) - Sometimes a team has to take a few steps back before it learns how to win. That's what happened to the Golden Gophers in Tim Brewster's first season. Offense - The "O" kept them in many games last year averaging 26 ppg. It was baptism by fire in '07, but each unit should improve in year two of the system. In fact, the positive progression began last year as the line allowed only 13 sacks and QB Adam Weber threw just seven interceptions the second half of the season. Defense - Minnesota finished last in the country in total defense and 109th in scoring. The team also ranked 114th in turnover differential. On the bright side, DE Willie VanDeSteeg, who was hampered by a wrist injury (just one sack after 10 the year before), is healthy once again and six other starters return. Outlook - For as bad as the defense was, six of the 11 losses came by a total of 23 points. Look for Minnesota to win a couple of those close ones this year en route to a 4-8 record and two conference victories. After failing to cover their first four games last season, the Gophers ended the year with four ATS wins in their last seven matchups. 11) INDIANA (30-1, 25-1 Field) - The Hoosiers went bowling for the first time since 1993, and once again, do not have to play Ohio State. Offense - This season will prove how much James Hardy meant to this offense. Hardy, now with the Buffalo Bills, caught 26 of the 34 TDs thrown to the wide receivers the last two years. Quarterback Kellen Lewis, who has led the team in rushing the last two seasons, missed the spring and is behind the eight ball in learning the new no-huddle offense. Keep an eye on freshman tight end Max Dedmond, as he could be Hardy's replacement inside the Red Zone. Defense - Indiana recorded 42 sacks last year after amassing just 14 in 2006. The reason? Greg Middleton led the country with 16. He's back to anchor a very imposing front seven. The secondary will take a hit, however, as both staring cornerbacks have departed, including first team all-Big Ten CB Tracy Porter. Outlook - Minnesota's offense will not be as productive and Middleton will not supply the same type of production now that he's a known commodity. Both factors will combine for a 5-7 season (2-6 in league play). The Hoosiers are 7-1 as a home favorite the last four years.
Copyright 2008 Courtesy of The Sports Network.











