Survey: Doyle Tops Green By 10 Percent

MADISON, Wis. -- A new statewide poll, sponsored by WISC-TV, shows incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle with a 10-percentage-point lead over his Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Mark Green.

LISTEN: Doyle Campaign Responds | LISTEN: Green Campaign Responds | VIDEO: Watch The Report

The survey of 600 likely voters shows the Democratic governor with a lead -- 48 percent to 38 percent -- but short of the "magic" 50-percent mark that pollsters use to consider an incumbent safe.

University of Wisconsin political science professor Charles Franklin said that the poll suggests that Doyle's position is uncertain at this point.

"(Doyle's) exactly in the place no incumbent would want to be which is -- not safe for re-election," said UW political science professor Charles Franklin. "But, at the same time, he's not suffering extremely bad polling results either."

Franklin said that the poll suggests one factor is certain.

"It confirms what we've all been kind of expecting -- a potentially very tight race for governor, certainly a competitive one," he said.

Green's campaign manager Mark Graul called the poll "fantastic news," and pointed out that Doyle's been running negative ads about the congressman. Graul said that this survey shows that those attacks aren't working.

Graul said that he also isn't worried about poll results that said about 34 percent of Wisconsinites surveyed still had "no opinion" of the challenger, suggesting the congressman is still an unknown.

"I know (voters) are going to like what they learn," Graul said.

Doyle campaign spokesman Anson Kaye said that his team was "happy" with the results of the poll and called the 10-point margin "substantial."

Kaye also zeroed in on poll results that showed Doyle leads Green by 6 percentage points in the Green Bay area, the congressman's hometown.

"It's pretty telling when the people who know Mark Green best don't want him to be governor," Kaye said. "The more people in Wisconsin get to know Mark Green, the less they like him."

Franklin said that he expects the race to tighten as more people learn about Green. He said that the poll shows independents lean towards Doyle, but it's still early enough in the election cycle for that to change.

Doyle showed remarkable consistency in some poll categories, receiving a 48 percent favorable rating, getting 48 percent of people who approved of his job performance and receiving 48 percent who said that they would vote for him if the November election was held today.

"That's a very consistent 48 percent," Franklin said. "Always just shy of the 50 percent number, and it says that Doyle still has some work to do in convincing voters to come over to him for that last three percent he needs."

The poll was conducted by Research 2000 and used a random digit dial to identify voters over a three-day period from Aug. 14 to Aug. 16.

Stay tuned to WISC-TV and Channel 3000 for continuing coverage.