Election 2004 Leaves Pundits Dazed, Confused
Brandon Scholz: 'It Will Take A Week Or So To Tell If The Pollsters Were Anywhere Near Right'
By Brian E. Clark
Special To Channel3000.comMADISON, Wis. -- Most Wisconsinites went to bed Tuesday night without knowing who had won the presidential race.
But they did learn that U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold had been returned to office for a third term and that Milwaukee voters made Gwen Moore the first African-American woman from Wisconsin elected to Congress.The presidential election was a nail biter into the early morning, leaving some analysts puzzled and dazed. It took until nearly 4 a.m. for a presidential winner to be declared in the state of Wisconsin. Democrat John Kerry narrowly defeated President George W. Bush for the state's 10 electoral votes. ( Full Coverage )Though he appeared confident that Kerry would win before the presidential results began coming in, Matt Rothschild, editor of the Madison-based Progressive Magazine, said he was “sitting on pins and needles” for much of the evening. Rothschild was one of four guests appearing as analysts on News 3's special election coverage Tuesday night.While Rothschild didn’t concede that Bush had won, he said he had thought more new voters would have voted for Kerry.He also said he feared that the country might swing more to the right with a Bush victory. Some exit polls showed that conservative moral issues, rather than the war on terror, pushed people to vote for the president.Ken Mayer, a UW-Madison political science professor, said Bush apparently was successful in energizing his base, while Kerry never caught on with enough voters.“There may have been concerns over Kerry that he could never overcome,” Mayer said. “It was not enough that people didn’t like Bush.“In the end, Kerry was a compromise candidate,” added Mayer.He also said new voters, who were supposed to go heavily for Kerry, were apparently not a factor.Jeff Mayers, president of Wispolitics.com, said polling may have been off the mark in some cases. He said new ways of figuring out how people plan to vote will have to be created – perhaps by using the Internet.Republican strategist Brandon Scholz agreed that pollsters had failed to reach people who have traded their landlines for cell phones.But he called that last few months “fabulous” for Wisconsin.“If you have ever wondered what it’s like to be in Iowa during the caucuses, now you know,” he said. “It’s great to be treated like our votes really matter.”Nationally, he said all the hype about ballot security and fraud had turned out to be minor concerns.“In the end, it looks like it all came down to Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and other states,” he said. “It will take a week or so to tell if the pollsters were anywhere near right,” he said. “But I think it will have to lead to new mechanics and techniques.”
TALKBACK: Did You Vote? How Was It?
Brian E. Clark is editor of WisBusiness.com.
Special To Channel3000.comMADISON, Wis. -- Most Wisconsinites went to bed Tuesday night without knowing who had won the presidential race.
 Results: National Races | State-By-State Breakdown Coverage: Hot Races | State Issues | Voting Problems Interactive: Electoral College ExplainedSlideshow: Images Of Election 2004Survey: Happy With Election Outcome? |
But they did learn that U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold had been returned to office for a third term and that Milwaukee voters made Gwen Moore the first African-American woman from Wisconsin elected to Congress.The presidential election was a nail biter into the early morning, leaving some analysts puzzled and dazed. It took until nearly 4 a.m. for a presidential winner to be declared in the state of Wisconsin. Democrat John Kerry narrowly defeated President George W. Bush for the state's 10 electoral votes. ( Full Coverage )Though he appeared confident that Kerry would win before the presidential results began coming in, Matt Rothschild, editor of the Madison-based Progressive Magazine, said he was “sitting on pins and needles” for much of the evening. Rothschild was one of four guests appearing as analysts on News 3's special election coverage Tuesday night.While Rothschild didn’t concede that Bush had won, he said he had thought more new voters would have voted for Kerry.He also said he feared that the country might swing more to the right with a Bush victory. Some exit polls showed that conservative moral issues, rather than the war on terror, pushed people to vote for the president.Ken Mayer, a UW-Madison political science professor, said Bush apparently was successful in energizing his base, while Kerry never caught on with enough voters.“There may have been concerns over Kerry that he could never overcome,” Mayer said. “It was not enough that people didn’t like Bush.“In the end, Kerry was a compromise candidate,” added Mayer.He also said new voters, who were supposed to go heavily for Kerry, were apparently not a factor.Jeff Mayers, president of Wispolitics.com, said polling may have been off the mark in some cases. He said new ways of figuring out how people plan to vote will have to be created – perhaps by using the Internet.Republican strategist Brandon Scholz agreed that pollsters had failed to reach people who have traded their landlines for cell phones.But he called that last few months “fabulous” for Wisconsin.“If you have ever wondered what it’s like to be in Iowa during the caucuses, now you know,” he said. “It’s great to be treated like our votes really matter.”Nationally, he said all the hype about ballot security and fraud had turned out to be minor concerns.“In the end, it looks like it all came down to Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and other states,” he said. “It will take a week or so to tell if the pollsters were anywhere near right,” he said. “But I think it will have to lead to new mechanics and techniques.”
TALKBACK: Did You Vote? How Was It?Brian E. Clark is editor of WisBusiness.com.
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