MADISON, Wis. -- The U.S. presidential election is one year away, and the Wisconsin primary is set for Feb. 19, but a new statewide poll indicates roughly 50 percent of Wisconsin voters will choose a Democrat, and 40 percent report that they want a Republican in office.

Political experts said the poll might be indicative of where things stand right now in the minds of the state's voters, but is likely to change, WISC-TV reported.

Experts said a different primary schedule nationwide and some fluid numbers tied to early primary states mean the latest poll is more of a suggestion, rather than a prediction.

There's less than a month to go until the Iowa caucus, and political science experts said the presidential races for both parties have suddenly become very dynamic with a lot of changes. Some front-runners are seeing their numbers fall, while outside challengers are picking up speed, WISC-TV reported.

Experts said all of the ups and downs are one reason why Wisconsin's latest presidential poll numbers will be fleeting.

"Any poll we see for Wisconsin today is unlikely to still be what we would see come January, or let alone come our primary in February," said University of Wisconsin Professor Charles Franklin.

Although Franklin said the new Badger Poll done by the UW Survey Center does hold some surprises.

"The most surprising thing is on the Republican side is seeing Fred Thompson in first place," said Franklin.

That finding flies in the face of national polls, which show the majority of Republicans going with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The poll found that of the Republicans and independents leaning toward Republican, 30 percent chose Fred Thompson, followed by Giuliani, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Of those leaning toward Democratic candidates, the survey discovered that 39 percent chose Hillary Clinton, and 26 percent chose Barack Obama, followed by John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

Despite the numbers, Franklin said that all of that could easily change due to the timing of Wisconsin's primary. Many states across the country have moved up their primary dates.

By the time Wisconsin votes, nearly three dozen states will have already been to the polls, including 23 states on "Super Tuesday" on Feb. 5.

"The only way we end up being a key player this year is if the early primaries split and leave two or more candidates in one or both parties still alive," said Franklin.

Wisconsin's primary falls a full two weeks after Super Tuesday.

Franklin said he believes it's possible that a second-place challenger could survive, which would make Wisconsin's primary extremely important, but he wouldn't bet on it.