You'd think there would be no better harbinger about who will win the White House than Tuesday's vote in Wisconsin to recall Gov. Scott Walker.
It's a contentious statewide vote in a critical battleground state that's yet to move on from the 2010 campaign.
But you'd be wrong.
On both sides of the fall campaign, there's a feeling the outcome of the vote will highlight reasons both President Barack Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney should compete hard for Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes.
And there's agreement the Wisconsin recall doesn't say much at all about the presidential race in the other 49 states.
Said one senior strategist of several election campaigns in Wisconsin: "It's a Wisconsin-specific moment, not a national referendum."