Two recent surveys show very different levels of support for the smoking ban in Madison. Colin Benedict investigated to find which survey was most truthful.

MADISON, Wis. -- If you saw the two polls last week on Madison's smoking bans, you probably were left scratching your head. How many people support the ban? And if two pollsters ask the same thing, why do they get two very different answers?

Chamberlain Research:
49 percent favor ban
42 percent oppose ban

The Mellman Group, Inc.
68 percent favor ban
29 percent oppose ban

The Melmann Group, based in Washington, D.C., said 68 percent support the smoking ban and 29 percent oppose it.

This "needs clarification," Benedict reported. The short answer is they aren't asking the same people, but more importantly, they aren't asking the same questions.

News 3 asked UW pollster Don Ferree, who operates the Badger Poll, to examine both surveys, and he found glaring differences.

"None of the questions look on their face that they're clearly inaccurate," said Ferree, UW pollster who operates the Badger Poll. "Now, whether they were hoping for a result involves mind-reading."

Look at the exact wording yourself: Chamberlain, the survey that found Madison closely divided (Chamberlain: 49 percent for, 42 percent against), told its responders, "The Madison city council recently passed a smoke-free ordinance which banned smoking in bars, restaurants and bowling alleys as of July first. do you support or oppose this ordinance?"

"So there's a very tight focus on the most contentious parts of the ordinance -- those having to do with eating and drinking in certain public places," Ferree said.

Ferree said tight wording might exclude those that support the broader effects of the ordinance, such as no smoking in offices or public buildings.

It's a difference that becomes clear when you look at the Melman wording, which found 68 percent for, 29 percent against the ban: "As you may know, earlier this year, a law went into effect prohibiting smoking in most indoor public places in the city of Madison, including workplaces, public buildings, offices, restaurants and bars. Would you say you favor or oppose this law?"

"They're asking people whether they favor a broader ban that is essentially talking about banning smoking in public," Ferree said, "as opposed to banning smoking in eating and drinking establishments."

The two polls also ask two completely different groups. Chamberlain polled Madison residents, using a random-digit dial; Mellman called only registered voters in Madison.

While this could have been made a big difference, it appears not to be a factor. Mellman had older respondents, but all age groups voted roughly the same way in both polls.

"It's not likely that accounts for very much difference," Ferree said.

What about the timing of the poll? It's been suggested Chamberlain's poll was influenced by the large downtown anti-ban rally Aug. 16, which was in the news.

Chamberlain asked their questions from Aug. 17-19. Ferree said this appears to be not a factor. For one, Mellman conducted its poll after Chamberlain, not before -- from Aug. 20-23.

Most people surveyed said they've been following the issue closely, meaning one event isn't likely to dramatically sway public opinion.

Ferree said none of the questions is either poll are clearly inaccurate and neither poll was clearly biased.

"If anything, you might suspect that the Chamberlain survey would somewhat understate support for the ordinance, and the Melman survey would somewhat overstate support for the ordinance at least as it's focused on restaurants, bars and the like," Ferree said. "In some ways, perhaps the truth is somewhere in between."

Ferree said neither poll can accurately predict a possible referendum because, for one thing, no date is set, and also because so much depends on the wording and that hasn't been crafted, either.