WASHINGTON -- Top banking economists look for two more rate hikes coming from the Federal Reserve. That would put the end of the central bank's rate-raising path in early May.

A survey released Friday by the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee noted that the impact of past rate hikes has yet to be felt.

"The balance of risk is shifting from inflation to slower growth," said Robert McGee, U.S. Trust Co. chief economist, who headed the panel. "The full impact of the past year's tightening has yet to be felt, which should raise a caution flag for the Fed."

The panel said it expects the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter-point at its March and possibly its May meetings, capping the rate at 5 percent through the summer.

The survey also showed the economists expect that the housing market will continue to cool, with housing starts and home sales slowly decreasing through 2006 and 2007.

"Some of the steam has come off the housing market, but the decline in activity will be gradual and orderly, " said McGee.

Economists said they believe the housing slowdown will cause uncertainty for consumers, slowing consumer spending in 2006.

"As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past," said McGee. "The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending."

The ABA survey also suggested that solid job and income growth will help offset the effects on the economy of higher interest rates and uncertainty in the housing market.

"Credit remains widely available for both consumers and businesses despite higher interest rates," said McGee. "However, consumer borrowing is likely to slow as housing markets cool. Business borrowing should take up some of the slack."